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Expert Analyzes Tesla's Q1 2023 Delivery Numbers and Their Implications for the Company's Future

Tesla has reported its Q1 2023 delivery figures, revealing a total of 422,875 vehicles delivered, which beat most current consensus Wall Street estimates. The company delivered 10,695 Model S/X vehicles and 412,180 Model 3/Y vehicles. This Q1 figure represents a 36% increase year over year and a 4% increase sequentially compared to the 405,278 deliveries posted in Q4 2022.

While some outlets are reporting the number as a "miss" compared to original estimates, it's important to note that these expectations were for 430,008 vehicles. It's also worth noting that Tesla's longer-term goal of delivering 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 is still achievable based on these figures.


Picture: Kumaon Jagran

Bulls are likely to see the beat as good news, while bears will argue that the "beat" wasn't enough given the drastic price cuts Tesla has put into place since the end of last year. The company has reduced the prices of its more affordable vehicles by as much as 20%, which enabled buyers to qualify for the tax incentive by putting the vehicles under a $55,000 cap.

Despite these price cuts, Tesla's delivery figures suggest that demand for its more expensive vehicles, namely the Model S and Model X, has not increased significantly. Analyst Dan Ives suggested that Tesla's longer-term delivery goal could be what drives sentiment in the stock in the upcoming week.

Tesla has experienced significant tailwinds due to these price cuts, which Gene Munster suggests have prevented an "ugly" outcome for the company's Q1 figures. However, GLJ Research's Gordon Johnson believes that these tailwinds may already be growing weary, suggesting that even if Tesla reaches its 1.8 million delivery target for 2023, earnings could suffer.

Johnson estimates that Tesla's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 could fall to $2.67/share versus a consensus estimate of $3.98/share. This could result in a -27.0% fall in EPS year over year, which may negatively impact the company's stock price.

While the Q1 delivery figures have exceeded current expectations, it remains to be seen whether Tesla's price cuts will continue to drive demand and whether the company will be able to achieve its longer-term delivery goals. As such, investors should continue to monitor the company's financial performance and future plans closely.

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